ALBERTA ENTERPRISE GROUP

THE WEEKLY BRIEF

What's moving in government, and what it means for your business.

PRESIDENT'S UPDATE

NEW THIS WEEK — TIPS & TRICKS

We are launching a new series for members called Tips & Tricks. Short, practical pieces on the things that are hard to work out from the outside: who actually decides, who to talk to when the people in those roles change, how to move something through any level of government — municipal, provincial or federal — and how to get more out of your membership. Some will be step by step. Some will simply be who is who and what has changed. All of them will be short, and none of them will be theory.

The first one is out now: how to write a budget submission that actually gets read. Alberta's fiscal picture has swung $11.4 billion since February, the Finance Minister has said where new money would go first, and ministries are building their business plans right now. If you have an ask, this is the year to make it, and the work starts well before the formal window opens in November.

Link:  How to Write a Budget Submission That Actually Gets Read

THE BRIEF NOW LIVES ON OUR WEBSITE

Every edition of The Weekly Brief is now posted to our website, updated weekly. No more digging through your inbox to find the one with the program deadline in it — bookmark the page and you have the full run in one place.

Link:  Member newsletter archive

BRITISH COLUMBIA GOES TO THE POLLS — FIVE DAYS AFTER WE DO

On Tuesday, Premier David Eby called a snap election in British Columbia for October 24, two years into a four-year term. Albertans vote in our own referendum on October 19. Those two dates are five days apart, and that matters more to Alberta business than it might first appear.

The reasoning behind the call is not hard to read. The BC NDP has been governing on the narrowest of margins, and the opposition has come apart — the BC Conservatives have lost more than a dozen MLAs and churned through leaders, and there are now two additional parties competing for the same right-of-centre vote. A split three ways is the most favourable map the NDP is likely to see for some time. Eby has framed the call around the trade war and the need for a clear mandate. It is a reasonable read that he is going now because waiting makes his position worse, not better.

For our members, the question is less who wins than what it does to market access. British Columbia is the province our pipelines have to cross and the coast our energy has to reach. A returned NDP government with a strengthened mandate most likely means continuity in BC's posture — and that posture has not been an easy one for Alberta oil. A change of government, or a weakened one dependent on others to govern, introduces uncertainty in both directions. Neither outcome is a guarantee of anything for Alberta.

The timing is the part worth watching closely. Our referendum result will land in the final week of their campaign. Whatever Albertans decide on October 19 will be live in British Columbia's election — and the way Alberta is being talked about in that campaign will shape what any incoming BC government feels it can afford to do with us afterward. That is worth thinking about carefully, whichever way you intend to vote.

Our Board Chair, John Liston, wrote on this in the St. Albert Gazette last week, asking whether Alberta might lead rather than leave. His argument is that Alberta's frustration with Ottawa is real and earned, but that the alternatives — greater autonomy, a stronger voice in Confederation, better interprovincial trade, a more productive relationship with the federal government — deserve to be explored before we conclude separation is the only answer. It is a thoughtful piece and worth your time.

Link:  Liston: Could Alberta lead rather than leave?

CATCH ME ON CTV — WEDNESDAYS

I am on Vassy Kapelos' Power Play Front Bench every Wednesday, between 3 and 4 p.m. MST. The panel takes on the public affairs and policy questions landing on Canadians each week — the trade war has been a regular feature, and this week there is no shortage of material. Past episodes are all online if you miss it live.

Link:  Power Play — full episodes

THE LISTENING TOUR CONTINUES

Thank you to everyone who completed the member survey. Those results, together with what I am hearing on the listening tour, are going straight into our strategic planning and into the policy committees we are striking shortly. If we have not yet spoken, reach out and we will book a time.

— Erika Barootes, President

GOVERNMENT ACTIONS

1.  Alberta puts $1.1 million into helping businesses sell abroad

What happened:  On Tuesday the province launched Level Up, a provincewide export program delivered with Calgary Economic Development. It builds on the Trade Accelerator Program, adding specialized training, coaching and market-specific knowledge for businesses ready to expand internationally. Since June 2025 the province has committed $3.8 million to the two programs together, with a target of supporting more than 1,500 businesses over five years.

What it means for your business:  If tariffs have made your reliance on a single market uncomfortable, this is the province paying for the expertise to reduce it. The track record is real — more than 660 Alberta companies have gone through the Trade Accelerator Program since 2018, securing over 200 trade deals across 50 markets. It sits alongside the Alberta Export Expansion Program and the government's trade missions, and it is worth looking at all three together rather than one at a time.

What AEG is doing:  Diversifying away from a single market is one of the clearest themes from the listening tour. We will be watching how quickly Level Up reaches businesses outside Calgary, and raising it if the answer is not quickly enough.

Link:  Level Up program

2.  Tariff support: where things stand, and an offer

What happened:  The Regional Tariff Response Initiative, delivered here by PrairiesCan, was expanded by $1.5 billion and now offers up to $3 million per business in non-repayable contributions — up to $2 million in liquidity assistance and up to $1 million for a pivot project. Intake runs to December 31, 2028, or until the funding is committed, which is the more likely constraint.

What it means for your business:  The bar is lower than most people assume. You need to be incorporated, operating in the Prairies, with at least $1 million in annual revenue in one of your last two fiscal years, and viable before the tariffs hit. Then any one of three tests qualifies you:

▸  You operate in a sector hit by Section 232 or Section 338 tariffs — and indirect exposure counts, so supply chain partners of affected exporters qualify on this test alone.

▸  At least 25% of your revenue comes from goods ultimately exported to the United States.

▸  You can demonstrate significant input cost increases, supply chain disruption, or lost revenue or customers.

Manufacturing, petrochemical and chemical, agrifood, and lumber and forestry are the sectors most likely to see themselves here. There is also a food security stream for value-added production.

What AEG is doing:  PrairiesCan briefed the business community on the changes, including a meeting with our President. If enough members want it, we will arrange a webinar or information session with PrairiesCan so you can ask your questions directly rather than working it out from program pages. Reply to this email and tell us you are interested — if the numbers are there, we will organize it.

Link:  Regional Tariff Response Initiative — eligibility and how to apply

Link:  Alberta's tariff resource hub — current measures, and the input portal

3.  One date to put in your calendar: September 29

What happened:  The import prohibitions attached to the U.S. Section 338 proclamations of September 8 take effect on Monday. The tariff modifications themselves took effect on September 15.

What it means for your business:  If you ship affected goods, confirm your position before Monday rather than after. Some goods remain duty-free into the U.S. if they meet CUSMA rules of origin, and it is worth verifying rather than assuming — the federal Trade Commissioner support line for CUSMA compliance is 1-800-760-1167.

What AEG is doing:  Tracking the schedule and carrying member-specific exposure to both governments.

4.  Ottawa and the provinces put a date on internal trade

What happened:  Federal, provincial and territorial trade ministers met in Iqaluit on August 27 and ratified amendments to the Canadian Free Trade Agreement establishing a 30-day service standard for labour mobility applications. They agreed to accelerate work toward an agreement in principle on model mutual-recognition legislation by the end of fall 2026, and to conclude an agreement expanding mutual recognition to services by December 2026. They meet again on October 2 to check progress.

What it means for your business:  This is the file that matters most to the red tape members keep raising, because the barriers are between provinces rather than inside them. If you employ tradespeople, digital credential registries are now live in most jurisdictions with the rest expected this year, and common training models for Working at Heights and Mobile Elevating Work Platforms are to be recognized across jurisdictions by January 1, 2027. If you sell services rather than goods, December is the date to watch.

What AEG is doing:  Momentum here has been real but slow to reach the shop floor. We will be watching the October 2 meeting, and we want to hear from members where a provincial barrier is costing you money right now — that is the evidence that moves this file.

Link:  Committee on Internal Trade — August 27 communiqué

5.  Carbon capture is having a moment, and decisions are expected this fall

What happened:  Carbon Capture Canada brought about 5,000 people to Edmonton from September 15 to 17, and Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean was in London this week for the Carbon Capture Global Summit. The July memorandum of understanding between the federal and Alberta governments is moving from agreement to execution, with major decisions expected in the fall and beyond.

What it means for your business:  Alberta has roughly $2 billion invested in carbon capture projects, and Quest and the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line have stored more than 18 million tonnes between them. Enhance Energy has broken ground on Origins north of Edmonton, designed to store up to 1.5 million tonnes a year. If you are in energy, petrochemicals or heavy industry — or you supply them — the fall decisions will shape a significant amount of capital spending in this province.

What AEG is doing:  Watching what comes out of the federal-provincial MOU, and pressing for timelines members can actually plan against.

6.  Alberta wants to stop giving its ideas away

What happened:  The province released its Intellectual Property Framework on Wednesday, a core piece of the Alberta Technology and Innovation Strategy 2.0. It sets out how Alberta intends to keep ownership and commercial value of inventions developed here, and coordinates government programs, post-secondary institutions, technology transfer offices, Alberta Innovates, the Alberta Enterprise Corporation and industry around that goal. At its centre is the Alberta IP Office, announced in April, which will act as a hub for IP expertise — advice, specialists, education, market intelligence, and freedom-to-operate support for companies entering Canadian and international markets.

What it means for your business:  The numbers behind this are worth knowing. More than 40% of Canadian inventions are owned by foreign firms, with limited commercialization happening here. Just 1.1% of Canadian businesses file patents, against an average of 5.9% across other advanced economies. In the United States, IP-intensive industries account for roughly 41% of the economy and 44% of jobs. If you hold a process, a brand, a dataset or a trade secret and have never had it properly assessed, the freedom-to-operate support alone is worth a call — particularly if you are looking at Level Up and new markets, because that is exactly when unprotected IP becomes expensive.

What AEG is doing:  Watching how quickly the IP Office becomes something a mid-sized business can actually use, rather than a service oriented mainly to researchers and startups. That is the test we will hold it to.

Link:  Alberta Intellectual Property Framework

7.  A new royalty framework is coming in November, and the pipeline file has a date on it

What happened:  Speaking at the Oil Sands Expo in Fort McMurray last Wednesday, Premier Smith said Alberta will announce a new oil and gas royalty framework in November, structured to encourage investment in new production. At the Calgary Chamber on Tuesday she said she expects the West Coast pipeline proposal to be designated a project of national interest by October 1, with approvals and permits targeted for September 2027. Ottawa also introduced Bill C-39 this week, creating a one-project, one-review assessment process to be completed within a year for projects not designated as nationally significant.

What it means for your business:  The logic is that market access and production have to move together — a pipeline without the barrels to fill it is an expensive pipe. If you supply the oil sands, or you are weighing a capital decision that depends on egress, November is when the terms become knowable. Bill C-39's one-year review clock matters well beyond energy: it applies to projects that never get a national designation, which is most of them.

What AEG is doing:  We will work through the royalty framework when it lands and tell members plainly what it changes for them. On C-39, the question we are asking is whether a one-year clock survives contact with the agencies that have to meet it.

CLOSING THE LOOP

What we heard from members:  Two themes dominate the listening tour. Tariff exposure, direct and indirect. And red tape — permitting timelines, duplicated reporting, and approvals that stall projects already financed and ready to go.

What we asked for:  Clearer, faster guidance on what federal tariff support exists and who actually qualifies, rather than members working it out alone.

What came back:  PrairiesCan briefed the business community, including a meeting with our President, and the eligibility tests in item 2 above came directly out of that briefing. The next step is the webinar offer in that same item — tell us if you want it.

Still open:  Red tape. We have not yet made a specific ask on it, and we are not going to make a vague one. The policy committees we are striking shortly exist to turn what we are hearing into asks with a number and an address attached. If permitting or reporting is costing you real money, tell us what and how much — that detail is what makes an ask land.

NEWS YOU CAN USE

▸  What separation would cost, according to the province's own commissioned report

The University of Calgary's School of Public Policy released its analysis on September 16, commissioned by the Government of Alberta and written by an independent panel led by economist Tim Sargent. It models two scenarios: a smooth separation with quick, favourable negotiations, and a difficult one with protracted and hostile talks. Establishing a new country would cost between $50 billion and $170 billion in the first five years either way.

Under the difficult scenario, the report projects an economy more than 16% smaller after 20 years than if Alberta remained in Canada, employment close to 5% lower, and an ongoing annual deficit above $30 billion. Under the smooth scenario there are modest long-term gains — higher GDP, lower taxes, and roughly $1,851 a year in additional wages — but not for two decades. The school's director has been explicit that the report neither advocates for nor opposes separation.

Finance Minister Jason Nixon said the findings show separation would be costly in the short term and uncertain over the long term, and restated the government's support for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. NDP finance critic Court Ellingson said the report shows the October referendum is a waste of time, arguing its conclusions point to lower wages, job losses, higher taxes, a smaller economy and mounting debt.

Why it's useful:  Whatever you think of the question, this is the first comprehensive costing from an academic institution, and it was commissioned by the province rather than by either campaign. If your board or your staff are asking what the numbers actually are, this is the document to point them at.

Link:  Coverage of the report and its findings

▸  There is a federal tool that tells you which supports you qualify for

The Canada Strong business support finder works as a calculator: answer a few questions about your business and it returns the programs you are eligible for. It covers the supports members ask about most — BDC financing, EDC trade support, and Service Canada's Work-Sharing program, which lets you cut hours across a team instead of laying people off, with EI topping up the difference.

Why it's useful:  Ten minutes, and it is the fastest way to find out whether you are leaving money on the table.

Link:  Find support for your business

▸  A new Alberta centre for logistics strategy, technology and talent

The Alberta Logistics Centre of Excellence, powered by Mount Royal University and funded by the Government of Alberta, PrairiesCan and the Opportunity Calgary Investment Fund, works across skills and workforce development, technology adoption, trade and tariff strategy, and thought leadership. Its Intelligent Warehouse Program runs in Edmonton on October 5 and 6 and in Calgary on October 19 and 20 — two-day intensives for leaders making capital and modernization decisions.

Why it's useful:  If you move goods, or your customers do, the trade and tariff strategy work overlaps directly with what is above.

Link:  Alberta Logistics Centre of Excellence

ALSO THIS WEEK

▸  An opportunity for members, from a member

CPHR Alberta runs an Executive Program built for senior decision makers, and it is open to business community executives, not only HR professionals — CEOs, CFOs, Presidents, Executive Directors and VPs are all in scope. A year of curated sessions and peer conversation, with one rule that makes it worth the time: no sales, no pitches. Lunch with Leaders runs in Calgary on October 15 and Edmonton on October 20. Invitations go to Executive Program members, so join first if you want in.

Link:  CPHR Alberta Executive Program

▸  Erika Barootes speaking at We Unify: Reclaiming Alberta

Our President will speak on the future of business in Alberta at the We Unify: Reclaiming Alberta conference, October 3 and 4 in Calgary.

Link:  Learn more about the conference

Have news we should carry? Send it to us and it goes in the next issue — a promotion, an award, an expansion, a community project, or a member quoted in the press. This section is only as good as what you send.

ON THE CALENDAR

Sep 29   U.S. import prohibitions under the September 8 Section 338 proclamations take effect. Confirm your position before Monday if you ship affected goods.

Link:  Current measures

Wednesdays   Erika Barootes on CTV's Power Play Front Bench with Vassy Kapelos, 3–4 p.m. MST.

Link:  Watch past episodes

Oct 2   Committee on Internal Trade ministers meet again to check progress on mutual recognition and labour mobility.

Link:  August communiqué

Oct 3–4   Erika Barootes speaks on the future of business in Alberta at We Unify: Reclaiming Alberta, Calgary.

Link:  Event details

Oct 5–6   Intelligent Warehouse Program, Edmonton — two-day intensive for warehouse leaders. Calgary runs October 19–20.

Link:  Programs and events

Oct 15   CPHR Alberta Lunch with Leaders, Calgary — leadership during economic uncertainty. Edmonton follows October 20.

Link:  Executive Program

Oct 19   Alberta referendum.

Oct 24   British Columbia general election.

Ongoing   Alberta's tariff input portal is open. Product-specific submissions with HS codes carry the most weight.

Link:  Share your input

To Dec 31, 2028   RTRI intake is open, or until the funding is committed — the more likely constraint. Apply early rather than late.

Link:  How to apply

TIP OF THE WEEK

STAY CONNECTED

Have news, an event, or a policy issue we should be watching? Send it to me — this brief is better when it comes from you. And if you know a business that should be in the room, forward this along.

Erika Barootes  ·  President, Alberta Enterprise Group
Sent from president@albertaenterprisegroup.com  ·  albertaenterprisegroup.com
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